Most market tips boil down to a rule: “if this happens, price will go there”. We tested the terminal's rules on the archive from September 4 to 24: for every trigger we looked at price 15, 60 and 240 minutes later and compared it with random minutes of the same coin in the same hour — separately for BTC, ETH and BNB and for the other coins, and on two halves of the period.
The result is plain: almost none of the rules has an edge. The sign of delta, spot for or against, the long/short skew, extreme funding, walls in the book, “liquidations pull price”, false breakouts, touching yesterday's high — after the trigger all of these behaved like a random minute. Some rules had so few events that there is no conclusion at all.
Two exceptions, both for small coins. When price moved over an hour with futures going along and spot against it, a reversal was more common an hour later (about +4 percentage points over random). When volume is three times normal, open interest rose 2% in 15 minutes and price stands still, the next move was more often larger than usual — but its direction is unknown. BTC, ETH and BNB show neither edge.
So the terminal names events in words but does not turn them into “signals”. The checks continue; if a rule stops passing them, we will say so.